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Tuesday, 2 July 2013

New Entries on

Check out the new site at . This week we hope to examine all the upcoming Ontario by-elections.

Friday, 26 April 2013

Ontario Election Watch - News You Can Use

The latest in Ontario Election Watch news is out on the airwaves. The Liberal government's budget is due next Thursday.

Kathleen Wynne says budget defeat would force 'unnecessary' election
When speaking with reporters in Toronto on Wednesday morning, the premier said she believed the government’s budget would be "very supportable" by both opposition parties.
But she also said that if they decide to vote against it and an "unnecessary" trip to polls is triggered, the Liberals are prepared to take on their opponents during a campaign.
“We’re ready for that and we’ll be campaigning in every seat across this province,” Wynne said.
Veteran strategist Don Guy declines to run another Ontario Liberal campaign  
Although Mr. Guy will continue to advise the Liberals, his decision will likely place more responsibility in the hands of Tom Allison, who ran Ms. Wynne’s leadership campaign this past winter and will step into that job in a general election. Ms. Wynne’s principal secretary, Andrew Bevan, is also expected to play a senior strategic role, as is Liberal backroom veteran David Herle.
Meanwhile, on the Opposition front:

Ontario PCs ‘thrilled’ with Doug Ford’s vow to run in next election, challenge to Premier Kathleen Wynne
“I’m calling her out — call an election, Kathleen Wynne, in May and I will run — I will guarantee it and we will defeat you and we will make sure the fiscal ship of this province is going in the right direction,” Ford declared on the The John Oakley Morning Show Wednesday. “If she calls it in May I’m going because this province right now is in deep trouble.” 
Tim Hudak enlists U.S. help to prepare for possible spring election
To help him improve, Hudak is using the services of Greener and Hook, a high-profile Alexandria, Va., political consultancy firm that does work for Republican clients such as House Majority Leader John Boehner and one-time presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann.
The increased amount of spending on the part of so-called "third-party" groups (a confusing term if ever there was one) during elections has not gone unnoticed.

Third-party spending tripled in last Ontario election  
Essensa notes that only one third party raised and spent more than $1 million on political ads in 2007. But in 2011, three third-party groups exceeded this threshold, with the ETFO representing the largest single spender at nearly $2.7 million.
Ontario should limit ‘third party’ election spending: Editorial
A gaping loophole in Ontario’s election finance rules allows so-called “third party” interest groups to dodge campaign spending limits. They’re increasingly using this lack of oversight to outspend bona fide political parties and sway the results of a vote. And that isn’t healthy for democracy.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

EKOS Poll: PC Majority Government

The latest figures released by EKOS and fed into our projection model suggest that the PCs would end up with a solid majority government and bring the Ontario Liberals below 19 seats.

The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, would gain a handful of seats and Andrea Horwath would become the leader of the official opposition.

This is something to keep in mind as the Liberals and NDP negotiate over the upcoming budget.

Perhaps the NDP's list of micro-demands are a very deft move, as Horwath's reasonable gains for various constituencies in the middle of a jobs crisis wouldn't be seen as precipitating an election. If she obtains them, people may thank her. If she does not, and the Liberals take a my-way-or-the-highway approach to the budget, causing an election, the Liberals will look bad for having nothing to offer on youth unemployment.

The prize of earning Official Opposition status might be very valuable symbolically for the NDP, even though it would actually represent a net loss of power for them.

On the other hand, Hudak's preferred policies are extreme enough to likely prompt the NDP and Liberal bases to pressure their leaders to find a solution to avoid an election, which looks set to lead to an even more austerity-prone government.

Thursday, 14 March 2013

Who's been losing support since Ontario's 2007 election?

What exactly happened in Ontario's 2011 election? How did we go from a Liberal majority to a "major minority?" To find out, we took another look at our Ontario clusters, this time checking out who each cluster supported in 2007, which we added to our analysis from the other day. Then we added our signature, 4am-style commentary to the whole shebang.


Read More from Ontario Projections