The Front Lines of Ontario - Battleground Clusters

Number crunching and statistical analysis can get you some pretty strange things.

You've probably heard of the idea of "battleground ridings". But in this entry, we're going to take a look at battleground clusters, a name we've just made up for different k-means clusters of Ontario electoral districts.

How We Did It

We told our statistical software program to divvy up all Ontario ridings by party votes in 2011, as a percentage of electors. This puts a party's relative attractiveness into the context of how well it was able to get out the vote on election day.

We might think of these Battleground Clusters as battle fronts on a map. A battle that I must sadly view from the sidelines (for now!), as I don't work in any paid capacity for a political party, consultancy, etc. I will let the professionals be my judge.

(I am also pleased to finally be able to offer some insight into Northern Ontario ridings, because this data doesn't depend on inconsistent, well-dated census data).

By-Elections: Windsor-Tecumseh and Sudbury within NDP Commuting Distance

Forward Together, just not with me.

Strange things are afoot in the Liberal cabinet. Dwight Duncan, the Finance Minister of Ontario, and MPP for Windsor-Tecumseh has just announced his resignation from his seat in Queen's Park, as has Energy Minister Chris Bentley, of London West. Likewise, another cabinet official, Rick Bartolucci, has just stepped down and will vacate his seat at the next general election.

These resignations will present some enticing opportunities to the opposition.

Bums on Seats

As the title of this entry suggests, we at OntarioProjections seem to think that the NDP has a chance to steal this seat from the Ontario Liberals, as well as Sudbury.