The Front Lines of Ontario - Battleground Clusters

Number crunching and statistical analysis can get you some pretty strange things.

You've probably heard of the idea of "battleground ridings". But in this entry, we're going to take a look at battleground clusters, a name we've just made up for different k-means clusters of Ontario electoral districts.

How We Did It

We told our statistical software program to divvy up all Ontario ridings by party votes in 2011, as a percentage of electors. This puts a party's relative attractiveness into the context of how well it was able to get out the vote on election day.

We might think of these Battleground Clusters as battle fronts on a map. A battle that I must sadly view from the sidelines (for now!), as I don't work in any paid capacity for a political party, consultancy, etc. I will let the professionals be my judge.

(I am also pleased to finally be able to offer some insight into Northern Ontario ridings, because this data doesn't depend on inconsistent, well-dated census data).

On the Field of Battle

Here is your somewhat more attractive, unattractive data table. Scroll down to skip.

Ontario Riding Names	Battleground Cluster	2011 GE Winner	2011 Runner-Up	Margin 1-2 (% of Electors)	Margin 1-3 (% of Electors)	Turnout
Ottawa South	1	Liberal	PC	7.86%	18.06%	50.94%
Etobicoke Centre	1	Liberal	PC	9.78%	20.66%	52.29%
Mississauga South	1	Liberal	PC	7.46%	20.74%	51.02%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore	1	Liberal	PC	10.83%	17.69%	49.72%
Pickering-Scarborough East	1	Liberal	PC	6.56%	14.94%	49.48%
Eglinton-Lawrence	1	Liberal	PC	10.62%	22.86%	51.57%
Oakville	1	Liberal	PC	5.33%	19.87%	52.51%
Willowdale	1	Liberal	PC	7.79%	17.17%	45.18%
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale	1	Liberal	PC	5.13%	14.90%	56.25%
Ottawa-Orléans	1	Liberal	PC	3.18%	18.81%	52.45%
London West	1	Liberal	PC	8.53%	12.63%	52.77%
Don Valley West	1	Liberal	PC	14.08%	25.23%	50.79%
Ottawa West-Nepean	1	Liberal	PC	1.23%	14.50%	54.06%
St. Paul's	1	Liberal	PC	18.81%	20.98%	50.20%
Kitchener-Waterloo	2	PC	Liberal	3.90%	13.65%	50.37%
Whitby-Oshawa	2	PC	Liberal	7.32%	16.20%	49.54%
Prince Edward-Hastings **	2	PC	Liberal	3.63%	13.25%	51.57%
Newmarket-Aurora	2	PC	Liberal	5.71%	16.17%	49.17%
Kitchener-Conestoga **	2	PC	Liberal	4.02%	12.33%	46.34%
Durham	2	PC	Liberal	9.77%	15.60%	49.55%
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock	2	PC	Liberal	6.49%	15.40%	54.77%
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex **	2	PC	Liberal	8.84%	13.34%	53.85%
Chatham-Kent-Essex **	2	PC	Liberal	4.73%	9.10%	49.09%
Burlington	2	PC	Liberal	2.37%	11.75%	54.58%
Halton	2	PC	Liberal	2.45%	14.36%	45.85%
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington	2	PC	Liberal	11.18%	16.10%	50.26%
Northumberland-Quinte West **	2	PC	Liberal	0.75%	11.41%	51.68%
Nipissing **	2	PC	Liberal	11.11%	16.50%	51.60%
Barrie **	2	PC	Liberal	2.68%	9.94%	45.81%
Perth-Wellington **	2	PC	Liberal	0.29%	12.58%	51.69%
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound	2	PC	Liberal	11.45%	17.72%	54.49%
Elgin-Middlesex-London **	2	PC	Liberal	10.75%	13.07%	51.09%
Kitchener Centre	2	Liberal	PC	0.40%	9.99%	48.94%
Carleton-Mississippi Mills	2	PC	Liberal	8.64%	20.76%	53.31%
Thornhill	2	PC	Liberal	2.61%	17.03%	45.11%
Huron-Bruce **	2	PC	Liberal	5.90%	12.93%	59.00%
Cambridge	2	PC	Liberal	2.12%	5.99%	45.83%
York-Simcoe	2	PC	Liberal	12.06%	15.25%	42.71%
Dufferin-Caledon	2	PC	Liberal	9.60%	15.38%	47.53%
Simcoe North	3	PC	Liberal	16.64%	19.41%	50.82%
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry **	3	PC	Liberal	17.18%	17.69%	51.13%
Oxford	3	PC	Liberal	14.65%	19.23%	49.02%
Wellington-Halton Hills	3	PC	Liberal	14.66%	20.97%	50.94%
Nepean-Carleton	3	PC	Liberal	13.68%	19.75%	49.73%
Parry Sound-Muskoka	3	PC	Liberal	18.49%	18.51%	51.54%
Niagara West-Glanbrook	3	PC	Liberal	13.65%	17.71%	54.65%
Simcoe-Grey	3	PC	Liberal	15.35%	19.02%	47.95%
Leeds-Grenville	3	PC	Liberal	23.29%	24.40%	50.44%
Haldimand-Norfolk	3	PC	NDP	21.99%	23.22%	53.12%
Sarnia-Lambton	3	PC	NDP	11.78%	13.67%	51.50%
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke	3	PC	Liberal	28.79%	31.43%	52.55%
Thunder Bay-Superior North	4	Liberal	NDP	4.87%	13.20%	48.02%
Windsor-Tecumseh	4	Liberal	NDP	4.44%	9.78%	44.42%
Scarborough-Rouge River	4	Liberal	NDP	2.52%	9.84%	42.64%
Scarborough Southwest	4	Liberal	NDP	6.01%	10.82%	47.56%
Thunder Bay-Atikokan	4	Liberal	NDP	0.77%	7.90%	46.43%
York South-Weston	4	Liberal	NDP	1.05%	14.90%	44.53%
York West	4	Liberal	NDP	6.10%	14.97%	38.95%
Sudbury	4	Liberal	NDP	0.82%	14.33%	49.77%
Trinity-Spadina	4	NDP	Liberal	1.04%	13.19%	42.81%
Windsor West	4	Liberal	NDP	4.33%	6.83%	41.32%
Ottawa Centre	4	Liberal	NDP	9.45%	15.22%	53.42%
Davenport ***	4	NDP	Liberal	2.05%	17.23%	45.33%
Sault Ste. Marie	4	Liberal	NDP	11.85%	21.16%	49.10%
Bramalea-Gore-Malton ***	4	NDP	Liberal	2.11%	6.24%	40.41%
Toronto Centre	4	Liberal	NDP	14.31%	18.91%	48.12%
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	5	NDP	Liberal	11.69%	15.19%	46.01%
Timiskaming-Cochrane ***	5	NDP	Liberal	12.07%	14.43%	49.86%
Hamilton Mountain	5	NDP	Liberal	6.42%	13.12%	50.22%
Nickel Belt	5	NDP	Liberal	15.13%	18.07%	49.40%
Toronto-Danforth	5	NDP	Liberal	11.47%	21.86%	49.00%
Algoma-Manitoulin ***	5	NDP	Liberal	7.91%	10.29%	49.18%
Beaches-East York	5	NDP	Liberal	5.52%	16.91%	51.42%
Parkdale-High Park	5	NDP	Liberal	4.52%	17.75%	51.52%
Hamilton Centre	5	NDP	Liberal	18.52%	20.33%	42.21%
Scarborough-Agincourt	6	Liberal	PC	6.37%	13.44%	43.24%
Mississauga-Erindale	6	Liberal	PC	4.08%	12.26%	43.78%
Mississauga East-Cooksville	6	Liberal	PC	5.03%	11.66%	40.27%
London North Centre	6	Liberal	PC	7.14%	10.10%	47.64%
Ajax-Pickering	6	Liberal	PC	5.27%	14.72%	44.66%
Mississauga-Streetsville	6	Liberal	PC	9.09%	15.00%	41.32%
York Centre	6	Liberal	PC	4.46%	14.14%	45.29%
Richmond Hill	6	Liberal	PC	4.70%	14.34%	42.25%
Scarborough-Guildwood	6	Liberal	PC	9.60%	13.96%	47.31%
Brampton-Springdale	6	Liberal	PC	3.32%	11.75%	40.27%
Oak Ridges-Markham	6	Liberal	PC	3.24%	13.38%	42.44%
Don Valley East	6	Liberal	PC	10.94%	14.88%	45.83%
Markham-Unionville	6	Liberal	PC	8.52%	16.27%	40.37%
Vaughan	6	Liberal	PC	8.88%	16.99%	40.75%
Brampton West	6	Liberal	PC	4.15%	9.44%	38.06%
Etobicoke North	6	Liberal	PC	9.62%	10.65%	39.91%
Scarborough Centre	6	Liberal	PC	12.16%	13.06%	44.23%
Guelph	6	Liberal	PC	8.42%	9.29%	50.05%
St. Catharines	6	Liberal	PC	2.03%	10.16%	50.78%
Kingston and the Islands	6	Liberal	NDP	11.24%	11.90%	44.86%
Ottawa-Vanier	6	Liberal	PC	13.08%	14.87%	46.61%
Brant	6	Liberal	PC	1.17%	6.19%	48.02%
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell	6	Liberal	PC	1.62%	13.74%	47.49%
Mississauga-Brampton South	6	Liberal	PC	5.66%	10.86%	36.17%
Peterborough	6	Liberal	PC	4.47%	7.58%	52.94%
Niagara Falls	6	Liberal	PC	0.52%	4.71%	49.12%
Welland	7	NDP	PC	6.44%	12.79%	51.35%
Essex ***	7	NDP	PC	1.53%	6.59%	51.19%
Timmins-James Bay	7	NDP	PC	5.96%	17.31%	46.67%
Kenora-Rainy River	7	NDP	PC	5.46%	18.08%	45.52%
Oshawa	7	PC	NDP	2.68%	10.91%	44.08%
London-Fanshawe ***	7	NDP	Liberal	5.69%	6.49%	45.53%

** PC Seat pickup
*** NDP Seat pickup

A brief Summary of the Clusters

or the "fronts", if you will.

Cluster 1 - Relatively safe Liberal ridings, with the Progressive Conservatives trailing somewhat behind. These are great places to be a cabinet minister or a premier (Kathleen Wynne in Don Valley West, you'll note; Outgoing premier Dalton McGuinty in Ottawa South). Turnout here is, on average, the lowest in the province, probably because everybody knows who will win here anyway. Ottawa West-Nepean showed some signs of cracking, as did Ottawa-Orléans. But overall, a pretty solid front for the Liberals.

Cluster 2 - A Battleground Cluster containing Liberal-PC Battleground ridings. Most of which the Progressive Conservatives took, with the sole exception of Kitchener Centre, which the Liberals barely kept a hold of. A full 24 out of the 25 PC gains in 2011 came from here. But given the contested character of these ridings last time, turnout is not especially high here either. Perhaps a lot of unenthusiastic Liberals simply didn't show up to the polls. Some New Democrats did, which is probably why the average margin between first and third place winners in these ridings is somewhat below average. (It's interesting to note that the NDP took Kitchener-Waterloo here during a by-election last year. How did they go from nearly 14 points behind, as a percentage of electors, to winning?)

Cluster 3 - The other side of the battlefield: the safe PC ridings. The PC's "general", Tim Hudak is safely ensconced in Niagra West-Glanbrook. (Did you ever play Stratego or Risk? Just asking.) On average, these are the safest ridings in Ontario. Turnout is, understandably, rather low. But perhaps since some of the core PC demographics are notorious high-turnout voters, they do better on this measure than the Liberals.

Cluster 4 - Because we can't just have a 1-dimensional theatre in a three-party system, can we? These are Liberal-NDP battlegrounds, with significantly tigher races (The average z-score for Margin 1-2 here is -0.55). Turnout here is the second highest in Ontario, on average. The Tories aren't far behind though, with closer-than-average margins for the third place winner. Any potential NDP government will have to have made some more gains on this territory; Davenport and Bramlea-Gore-Malton were an interesting beachhead into this terrain.

For all the talk about Trinity-Spadina being a young hipster hotspot, this hasn't translated into provincial NDP enthusiasm (1% margin over the Liberals! Maybe it's time for more green-haired, nose-ringed candidates, à la Québec Solidaire?). York South-Weston, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, and maybe even Scarborough-Rouge River are some low-hanging fruit. You'll notice that Dwight Duncan's Windsor-Tecumseh, and Rick Bartolucci's Sudbury are grabbable for the NDP, as we alluded to last time.

Toronto-Centre is the outlier. In fact, it's rather puzzling why it's down there and not in Cluster 1. But I didn't put it there, so don't blame me.

Cluster 5 - NDP safehouses. Andrea Horwath is holed up here, directing her troops. At a nearly 19% margin over the Liberals in Hamilton-Centre, it's hard to blame her. Is this the leader effect or something inherent about Hamilton (organized labour, etc.)? (I was told young people can still afford houses there. Though probably by saying that I just raised housing prices in Hamilton another 10%. Sorry, lads.) Where the NDP made gains here in 2011, they were rather overwhelming: Timiskaming-Cochrane, Hamilton Mountain, Algoma-Manitoulin. The only riding with a margin lower than 5% here (as % of electors) is Parkdale-High Park.

Cluster 6  - Randomly, another collection of apparently safe Liberal ridings. On average, the margins are higher here than in Cluster 1. But the 1st-to-3rd place margins are somewhat lower. Turnout here is the highest in the province (z score of +0.86, vs -0.75 in Cluster 1). The PCs were in second place here, with the exception (barely) of Kingston and the Islands. A few of these ridings were rather close, though: Brant, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Niagara Falls, St. Catherines. With the high turnout considered, maybe we might call this "A more Fortified Liberal Fortress." 

Cluster 7 - This last front consists of the NDP-Progressive Conservative battlegrounds. The NDP eked out some gains here in Essex and London-Fanshawe, which were both a bit three-way-ish. Low margins and higher than average turnout, overall. One can see why the NDP might have Oshawa in their sights. At less than a 3% margin, it's a prime pickup opportunity.

Another Way to Look at It

There are other, more conventional ways to look at this strategically. I'll take a look at those too, in the next article.

For giggles we decided to see what makes a cluster tick, by means of a multiple regression. Do any demographics in particular affect the percentage of vote allotted to parties?

Here is the jumble we received.  A lot of it got cut off, and of course, no spaces. We're not going to sit there and space it out for you. You can make out the words, I hope.

You can see if anything here reinforces our observations about shifts in support since 2007.  If there is some strategic insight to be gleaned from this list (The Latin American demographic has good turnout?), it is beyond us.  Maybe it is a list of bivariate correlations to examine for each party vote.

Demographic	Standardized Coefficients - Beta
Median income in 2005, Common law couple families	4.815
Home language English and French	3.218
Total pop Latin American	2.377
Average number of persons in all census families	2.155
Pop 15 and over Unemployed	2.109
Labour 15 and over D Health occupations	1.902
75 to 79 years	1.865
Education 15 to 24 Apprenticeship or trades certificate	1.8
Dwellings requiring major repair as a Percent of total occupie	1.722
Males 18 years	1.7
Row houses as a Percent of total occupied private dwellings	1.665
Employed15andoverWorkedinadifferentcensussubdiv	1.602
Employed15andoverWorkedincensussubdivisionmunic	1.318
Pop15andoverworkedinEnglishandnonofficiallanguage	1.307
Employed15andovertransportWalkedorbicycled	1.278
TotalPopfieldofstudyVisualandperformingartsandco	1.233
Males40to44years	1.201
TotalpopFilipino	1.149
Females55to59years	1.085
TotalpopMultiplevisibleminority108	1.067
Averagenumberofroomsperdwelling18	0.971
TotalpopVisibleminoritynie107	0.938
Livedwithinthesameprovinceorterritory1yearagobutc	0.918
MultipleAboriginalidentityresponses	0.906
HomelanguageEnglishFrenchandnonofficiallanguage	0.88
Employed15andovertransportAllothermodes	0.811
Averagenumberofpersonsinfemaleloneparentfamilies	0.8
Livedinadifferentcountry1yearago	0.786
Education35to64Nocertificatediplomaordegree	0.783
Education15to24CollegeCEGEPorothernonuniversityce	0.768
Immigrant2ndgeneration58	0.692
Labour15andoverindcatConstruction	0.674
TotalPopfieldofstudyPhysicalandlifesciencesandtec	0.661
ApartmentsduplexasaPercentoftotaloccupiedprivated	0.639
TotalpopWestAsian106	0.558
TotalpopChinese	0.541
LegalstatusDivorced9	0.528
TotalPopfieldofstudyMathematicscomputerandinformat	0.525
Education25to34CollegeCEGEPorothernonuniversityce	0.492
Pop15andoverworkedinEnglishFrenchandnonofficial	0.435
TotalPopfieldofstudyAgriculturenaturalresourcesand	0.321
TotalPopfieldofstudyOther83	0.317
Averagenumberofpersonsinmaleloneparentfamilies	0.299
Employed15andoverWorkedoutsideCanada	0.298
Inuitsingleresponse	0.289
Medianincomein2005Maleloneparentfamilies$	0.233
Males85yearsandover	0.163
Numberofmaleloneparentfamilies	0.148
Females85yearsandover	0.139
Males50to54years	0.134
Labour15andoverindcatEducationalservices	0.132
OthermoneyAsaPercentoftotalincome	0.125
Pop15andoverworkedinFrenchandnonofficiallanguage	0.034
Education25to34Nocertificatediplomaordegree	0.029
Livedinadifferentprovinceorterritory1yearago	-0.004
Aboriginalresponsesnotincludedelsewhere65	-0.056
Livedatthesameaddress5yearsago	-0.064
Employed15andoverWorkedinadifferentprovince	-0.088
OtherdwellingsasaPercentoftotaloccupiedprivatedwel	-0.116
TotalpopSoutheastAsian105	-0.193
TotalpopJapanese	-0.201
Métissingleresponse	-0.281
NorthAmericanIndiansingleresponse64	-0.286
Labour15andoverindcatOtherservices	-0.322
Females19years	-0.328
Medianincomein2005Femaleloneparentfamilies$	-0.401
Labour15andoverindcatRetailtrade	-0.457
Labour15andoverGSalesandserviceoccupations	-0.462
TotalpopArab	-0.473
Labour15andoverindcatAgricultureandotherresource	-0.475
Nonpermanentresidents53	-0.561
Population15yearsandoverreportinghoursofunpaidcareora	-0.655
TotalpopKorean	-0.804
MedianearningsPersons15yearsandover$111	-0.823
Employed15andoverNofixedworkplaceaddress	-0.854
ApartmentsinbuildingswithfewerthanfivestoreysasaP	-0.878
Averagenumberofpersonsinloneparentfamilies	-0.884
TotalPopfieldofstudyArchitectureengineeringandrel	-0.924
TotalPopfieldofstudyEducation	-0.986
Employed15andoverWorkedathome	-1.023
Education25to34Highschoolcertificateorequivalent75	-1.029
Education25to34Apprenticeshiportradescertificateord	-1.081
Averagenumberofpersonsincommonlawcouplefamilies25	-1.096
Medianincomein2005Couplehouseholdswithchildren$	-1.102
Pop15andoverworkedinFrench	-1.19
SemidetachedhousesasaPercentoftotaloccupiedprivate	-1.278
HomelanguageFrenchandnonofficiallanguage	-1.457
Labour15andoverJOccupationsuniquetoprocessingmanu	-1.541
MotherTongueEnglishandFrench	-1.847
Medianmonthlypaymentsforrenteddwellings$43	-1.909
Labour15andoverindcatHealthcareandsocialservices	-2.15
TotalpopBlack	-2.222
Medianaftertaxincomein2005Couplehouseholdswithoutc	-3.343
PercentinlowincomeaftertaxPersonslessthan18yea	-3.669
Notinacommonlawrelationship	-4.569