Having read Charles Murray's Coming Apart recently, we decided to apply his methodology for finding "SuperZips", the sections of the country he believes stand out on the top of the socioeconomic pile, to the Ontario data we have at hand. Obviously Census tract data would be more detailed and similar to what he did in his book, but this is a quick update to show what this kind of measure produces here in Ontario.
Making up the numbers
Mr. Murray (2012: 321) says: "The ... score is based on the sum of standardized scores for a zip code's percentage of adults with college educations and its median family income, weighted by population." (We will skip over his exploration using the Stata EXPAND command.)
Because of limitations of the 2006 census data, we had to opt for the sum of two different compiled groups "Total population aged 25 to 34" and "Total population aged 35 to 64". We then added the figures for the parts of these groups reporting a "University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor's level or above", and calculated the percentage based on the first figure. For median income, we simply took the figure for "Median income in 2005 - All census families ($)".
We present two sets of scores: One is unweighted, the other attempts to weight the ridings by multiplying the first figure by the following: Population of the riding over the average population of all Rest-of-Ontario ridings. Because we don't have compatible electoral district census data for the North, figures are for the Rest of Ontario only.
Here are the results:
Edit: A new method was used to compute these scores. It consisted of first finding the percent score within a given riding (e.g. converting a score of 50,000 people within a riding twice that size to 50% of a riding). Then computing a standard score, based on the percent scores. Then weighting the standard scores by the population of the riding, by dividing the standard scores by the following: (Population of the riding / Average population of ridings).
Figures are based on the 2006 census, and are given for the Rest of Ontario only (i.e. Not the 11 Northern Ridings). The original figures given are found below.
A Google-style map is available.
| Riding | Weighted, Standardized Score: Education 15 and over: Degree at bachelor's level or above | Weighted, Standardized Score: Median after-tax income in 2005 - All census familie | SuperRiding Score | Percentile Rank | Over-Educated Score (Income Score minus Education Score) | Percentile Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Paul's | 2.65 | 1.25 | 3.91 | 100% | 1.40 | 85% |
| Ottawa Centre | 2.57 | 0.96 | 3.54 | 99% | 1.61 | 91% |
| Oakville | 1.02 | 2.50 | 3.52 | 98% | -1.48 | 7% |
| Carleton-Mississippi Mills | 1.01 | 2.01 | 3.02 | 97% | -1.00 | 21% |
| Ottawa-Orléans | 0.74 | 2.26 | 2.99 | 96% | -1.52 | 5% |
| Eglinton-Lawrence | 1.90 | 1.01 | 2.91 | 95% | 0.90 | 75% |
| Don Valley West | 2.27 | 0.62 | 2.89 | 94% | 1.65 | 92% |
| Nepean-Carleton | 0.85 | 1.67 | 2.52 | 93% | -0.81 | 29% |
| Thornhill | 1.36 | 1.10 | 2.46 | 92% | 0.26 | 63% |
| Halton | 0.69 | 1.72 | 2.41 | 91% | -1.03 | 18% |
| Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale | 0.69 | 1.63 | 2.33 | 89% | -0.94 | 24% |
| Trinity-Spadina | 2.37 | -0.29 | 2.08 | 88% | 2.67 | 99% |
| Newmarket-Aurora | 0.26 | 1.68 | 1.94 | 87% | -1.42 | 9% |
| Willowdale | 1.99 | -0.09 | 1.89 | 86% | 2.08 | 95% |
| Richmond Hill | 1.22 | 0.66 | 1.87 | 85% | 0.56 | 71% |
| Parkdale-High Park | 2.03 | -0.18 | 1.85 | 84% | 2.21 | 96% |
| Toronto Centre | 2.20 | -0.51 | 1.69 | 83% | 2.71 | 100% |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | 0.75 | 0.85 | 1.60 | 82% | -0.09 | 55% |
| Oak Ridges-Markham | 0.55 | 0.98 | 1.53 | 81% | -0.44 | 36% |
| Mississauga-Streetsville | 0.55 | 0.89 | 1.44 | 80% | -0.34 | 43% |
| Mississauga-Erindale | 0.69 | 0.75 | 1.44 | 79% | -0.07 | 56% |
| Pickering-Scarborough East | 0.05 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 78% | -1.34 | 12% |
| Mississauga South | 0.58 | 0.83 | 1.42 | 77% | -0.25 | 47% |
| Wellington-Halton Hills | -0.38 | 1.55 | 1.16 | 76% | -1.93 | 0% |
| Ottawa South | 0.95 | 0.19 | 1.13 | 75% | 0.76 | 74% |
| Etobicoke-Lakeshore | 0.90 | 0.19 | 1.09 | 74% | 0.70 | 73% |
| Etobicoke Centre | 0.74 | 0.30 | 1.04 | 73% | 0.44 | 66% |
| Ottawa-Vanier | 1.23 | -0.19 | 1.03 | 72% | 1.42 | 86% |
| Whitby-Oshawa | -0.25 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 71% | -1.51 | 6% |
| Burlington | 0.04 | 0.80 | 0.84 | 69% | -0.77 | 31% |
| Ajax-Pickering | -0.31 | 1.09 | 0.78 | 68% | -1.40 | 11% |
| Beaches-East York | 1.03 | -0.26 | 0.77 | 67% | 1.29 | 81% |
| Guelph | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.73 | 66% | -0.04 | 57% |
| Vaughan | -0.21 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 65% | -1.12 | 15% |
| Mississauga-Brampton South | 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.68 | 64% | 0.41 | 65% |
| London West | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 63% | 0.24 | 62% |
| Ottawa West-Nepean | 0.84 | -0.24 | 0.60 | 62% | 1.08 | 77% |
| Essex | -0.62 | 1.12 | 0.50 | 61% | -1.74 | 2% |
| Markham-Unionville | 0.44 | -0.05 | 0.38 | 60% | 0.49 | 68% |
| Dufferin-Caledon | -0.68 | 1.03 | 0.34 | 59% | -1.71 | 3% |
| London North Centre | 0.45 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 58% | 0.63 | 72% |
| Don Valley East | 1.39 | -1.15 | 0.25 | 57% | 2.54 | 98% |
| Toronto-Danforth | 0.97 | -0.74 | 0.23 | 56% | 1.71 | 93% |
| Durham | -0.80 | 1.01 | 0.21 | 55% | -1.81 | 1% |
| Niagara West-Glanbrook | -0.67 | 0.88 | 0.21 | 54% | -1.55 | 4% |
| Kingston and the Islands | 0.30 | -0.17 | 0.12 | 53% | 0.47 | 67% |
| Kitchener-Conestoga | -0.62 | 0.40 | -0.23 | 52% | -1.02 | 19% |
| Brampton West | -0.28 | -0.07 | -0.34 | 51% | -0.21 | 51% |
| Brampton-Springdale | -0.31 | -0.08 | -0.39 | 49% | -0.23 | 48% |
| Mississauga East-Cooksville | 0.47 | -0.93 | -0.46 | 48% | 1.40 | 84% |
| Windsor-Tecumseh | -0.42 | -0.07 | -0.49 | 47% | -0.35 | 42% |
| York-Simcoe | -1.00 | 0.45 | -0.55 | 46% | -1.45 | 8% |
| Cambridge | -0.77 | 0.21 | -0.56 | 45% | -0.98 | 22% |
| Simcoe-Grey | -0.76 | 0.12 | -0.65 | 44% | -0.88 | 26% |
| Windsor West | -0.07 | -0.58 | -0.66 | 43% | 0.51 | 69% |
| Barrie | -0.71 | 0.05 | -0.66 | 42% | -0.75 | 32% |
| Kitchener Centre | -0.55 | -0.32 | -0.88 | 41% | -0.23 | 49% |
| York Centre | 0.47 | -1.37 | -0.90 | 40% | 1.85 | 94% |
| Glengarry-Prescott-Russell | -0.96 | 0.05 | -0.91 | 39% | -1.02 | 20% |
| Sarnia-Lambton | -1.05 | 0.12 | -0.92 | 38% | -1.17 | 13% |
| Bramalea-Gore-Malton | -0.32 | -0.66 | -0.98 | 37% | 0.34 | 64% |
| Brant | -0.91 | -0.28 | -1.19 | 36% | -0.63 | 34% |
| Scarborough-Agincourt | 0.51 | -1.71 | -1.19 | 35% | 2.22 | 97% |
| Hamilton Mountain | -0.96 | -0.29 | -1.24 | 34% | -0.67 | 33% |
| Elgin-Middlesex-London | -1.17 | -0.09 | -1.26 | 33% | -1.08 | 17% |
| St. Catharines | -0.61 | -0.73 | -1.35 | 32% | 0.12 | 60% |
| Scarborough-Rouge River | -0.06 | -1.30 | -1.36 | 31% | 1.24 | 79% |
| Peterborough | -0.68 | -0.72 | -1.40 | 29% | 0.04 | 58% |
| Oshawa | -1.17 | -0.24 | -1.42 | 28% | -0.93 | 25% |
| Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington | -0.92 | -0.57 | -1.49 | 27% | -0.35 | 41% |
| Niagara Falls | -0.80 | -0.70 | -1.51 | 26% | -0.10 | 54% |
| Perth-Wellington | -1.30 | -0.22 | -1.53 | 25% | -1.08 | 16% |
| Oxford | -1.35 | -0.19 | -1.54 | 24% | -1.16 | 14% |
| Welland | -0.99 | -0.58 | -1.57 | 23% | -0.41 | 39% |
| Lambton-Kent-Middlesex | -1.28 | -0.31 | -1.58 | 22% | -0.97 | 23% |
| Huron-Bruce | -1.25 | -0.38 | -1.63 | 21% | -0.86 | 27% |
| Simcoe North | -0.90 | -0.73 | -1.63 | 20% | -0.17 | 53% |
| Northumberland-Quinte West | -1.03 | -0.62 | -1.66 | 19% | -0.41 | 37% |
| Scarborough Southwest | -0.09 | -1.58 | -1.67 | 18% | 1.50 | 89% |
| Leeds-Grenville | -1.03 | -0.64 | -1.67 | 17% | -0.39 | 40% |
| Scarborough Centre | -0.17 | -1.62 | -1.79 | 16% | 1.46 | 88% |
| Chatham-Kent-Essex | -1.24 | -0.61 | -1.84 | 15% | -0.63 | 35% |
| Davenport | -0.31 | -1.56 | -1.87 | 14% | 1.26 | 80% |
| Haldimand-Norfolk | -1.37 | -0.52 | -1.89 | 13% | -0.85 | 28% |
| Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock | -1.12 | -0.79 | -1.91 | 12% | -0.33 | 44% |
| Scarborough-Guildwood | -0.27 | -1.64 | -1.92 | 11% | 1.37 | 83% |
| Etobicoke North | -0.36 | -1.66 | -2.02 | 9% | 1.30 | 82% |
| Hamilton East-Stoney Creek | -1.15 | -0.88 | -2.03 | 8% | -0.28 | 46% |
| London-Fanshawe | -1.22 | -0.81 | -2.04 | 7% | -0.41 | 38% |
| Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke | -1.23 | -0.92 | -2.15 | 6% | -0.31 | 45% |
| Hamilton Centre | -0.47 | -1.68 | -2.15 | 5% | 1.20 | 78% |
| Prince Edward-Hastings | -1.00 | -1.20 | -2.20 | 4% | 0.20 | 61% |
| Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound | -1.19 | -1.24 | -2.43 | 3% | 0.05 | 59% |
| Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry | -1.33 | -1.16 | -2.48 | 2% | -0.17 | 52% |
| York South-Weston | -0.91 | -1.87 | -2.78 | 1% | 0.96 | 76% |
| York West | -0.92 | -2.37 | -3.28 | 0% | 1.45 | 87% |
Original scores from 2 Feb 2013:
See if you notice any political trends or other interesting patterns here. (I see that my riding, represented by the NDP, is within the top 25%.) We'll use these figures for more data manipulations later.
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