The Messy Job of Finding the Ontario Swing Voter

Today we're going to look for the Ontario swing voter.

On Election night, when we're standing there in front of the TVs, red-faced, waiting for the vote totals to trickle in from some uncalled riding, who's fault is it? Whose hesitation between parties is keeping us from getting some sleep that night?

Building on our prior experience with correlations, we decided to look for the census data that corresponded the closest with small electoral margins.

Small margins = swing voters, according to our thinking. Opportunities for growth for the parties.

The result of our search was rather surprising.

The Front Lines of Ontario - Battleground Clusters

Number crunching and statistical analysis can get you some pretty strange things.

You've probably heard of the idea of "battleground ridings". But in this entry, we're going to take a look at battleground clusters, a name we've just made up for different k-means clusters of Ontario electoral districts.

How We Did It

We told our statistical software program to divvy up all Ontario ridings by party votes in 2011, as a percentage of electors. This puts a party's relative attractiveness into the context of how well it was able to get out the vote on election day.

We might think of these Battleground Clusters as battle fronts on a map. A battle that I must sadly view from the sidelines (for now!), as I don't work in any paid capacity for a political party, consultancy, etc. I will let the professionals be my judge.

(I am also pleased to finally be able to offer some insight into Northern Ontario ridings, because this data doesn't depend on inconsistent, well-dated census data).

My g-g-generation - Young people for Anyone But McGuinty?

In Ontario politics, Dalton McGuinty may be yesterday's news, but his Liberal troops live on to fight another day. The new leader, Kathleen Wynne has a lot of territory to cover if she wants to get her government back up to a majority.

"Let's pretend you'll have careers..."

Where will she start? We already looked at where the Liberals in 2011 gained support compared to their 2007 score. Obviously this wasn't enough, as they went from a majority to a minority, meaning that afterwards they merely held the plurality of seats at Queen's Park, the provincial legislature. So we're going to look at what went wrong for them in the October 2011 elections.

Kathleen Wynne - The Over- Education Premier?

Last time, we took a look at a rough outline of how the "SuperZips" measure invented by Charles Murray might play out in Ontario at the riding level. Let's go a step further today, by breaking down the "SuperRiding" score by standardized education level and income level. 

So Many Books, So Few Dollars

Yesterday, I noticed that my own riding, Parkdale–High Park was above the 75th percentile in SuperRiding scores. But when it came to the cold, hard cash element, P-HP was behind.

Then there was Mitt Romney's line from the debates last year; how young people "... can't find a job commensurate with their education." If 20-somethings here are over-educated for today's economy, how are the other Ontario ridings faring?

Alms for those with advanced degrees?

Below, we've posted a breakdown of the figures that led to my SuperRidings score from yesterday. We've also added a new column, the Over-Educated Score, and then weighted it by the figure for Median Family Income. A positive number suggests income lagging behind education. A negative number suggests the opposite — perhaps large numbers of baby boomers who got their diploma stamped by the mill in the 1970s, and were rewarded by an easy labour market?

Data is for the Rest of Ontario only (No Northern Ridings).

Edit: A new method was used to compute these scores. It consisted of first finding the percent score within a given riding (e.g. converting a score of 50,000 people within a riding twice that size to 50% of a riding). Then computing a standard score, based on the percent scores. Then weighting the standard scores by the population of the riding, by dividing the standard scores by the following: (Population of the riding / Average population of ridings).

Figures are based on the 2006 census, and are given for the Rest of Ontario only (i.e. Not the 11 Northern Ridings). The original figures given are found below.  

Find your Electoral District at Elections Ontario.

Riding	Weighted Standardized Score: Education 15 and over: Degree at bachelor's level or above	Weighted Standardized score: Median after-tax income in 2005 - All census families	Over-Educated Score  (Income Score minus Education Score)	Percentile Rank	2011 Party Winner
Toronto Centre	2.20	-0.51	2.71	100%	OLP
Trinity-Spadina	2.37	-0.29	2.67	99%	NDP
Don Valley East	1.39	-1.15	2.54	98%	OLP
Scarborough-Agincourt	0.51	-1.71	2.22	97%	OLP
Parkdale-High Park	2.03	-0.18	2.21	96%	NDP
Willowdale	1.99	-0.09	2.08	95%	OLP
York Centre	0.47	-1.37	1.85	94%	OLP
Toronto-Danforth	0.97	-0.74	1.71	93%	NDP
Don Valley West	2.27	0.62	1.65	92%	OLP
Ottawa Centre	2.57	0.96	1.61	91%	OLP
Scarborough Southwest	-0.09	-1.58	1.50	89%	OLP
Scarborough Centre	-0.17	-1.62	1.46	88%	OLP
York West	-0.92	-2.37	1.45	87%	OLP
Ottawa-Vanier	1.23	-0.19	1.42	86%	OLP
St Paul's	2.65	1.25	1.40	85%	OLP
Mississauga East-Cooksville	0.47	-0.93	1.40	84%	OLP
Scarborough-Guildwood	-0.27	-1.64	1.37	83%	OLP
Etobicoke North	-0.36	-1.66	1.30	82%	OLP
Beaches-East York	1.03	-0.26	1.29	81%	NDP
Davenport	-0.31	-1.56	1.26	80%	NDP
Scarborough-Rouge River	-0.06	-1.30	1.24	79%	OLP
Hamilton Centre	-0.47	-1.68	1.20	78%	NDP
Ottawa West-Nepean	0.84	-0.24	1.08	77%	OLP
York South-Weston	-0.91	-1.87	0.96	76%	OLP
Eglinton-Lawrence	1.90	1.01	0.90	75%	OLP
Ottawa South	0.95	0.19	0.76	74%	OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore	0.90	0.19	0.70	73%	OLP
London North Centre	0.45	-0.19	0.63	72%	OLP
Richmond Hill	1.22	0.66	0.56	71%	OLP
Windsor West	-0.07	-0.58	0.51	69%	OLP
Markham-Unionville	0.44	-0.05	0.49	68%	OLP
Kingston and the Islands	0.30	-0.17	0.47	67%	OLP
Etobicoke Centre	0.74	0.30	0.44	66%	OLP
Mississauga-Brampton South	0.55	0.14	0.41	65%	OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton	-0.32	-0.66	0.34	64%	NDP
Thornhill	1.36	1.10	0.26	63%	PC
London West	0.42	0.18	0.24	62%	OLP
Prince Edward-Hastings	-1.00	-1.20	0.20	61%	PC
St. Catharines	-0.61	-0.73	0.12	60%	OLP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound	-1.19	-1.24	0.05	59%	PC
Peterborough	-0.68	-0.72	0.04	58%	OLP
Guelph	0.35	0.39	-0.04	57%	OLP
Mississauga-Erindale	0.69	0.75	-0.07	56%	OLP
Kitchener-Waterloo	0.75	0.85	-0.09	55%	PC
Niagara Falls	-0.80	-0.70	-0.10	54%	OLP
Simcoe North	-0.90	-0.73	-0.17	53%	PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry	-1.33	-1.16	-0.17	52%	PC
Brampton West	-0.28	-0.07	-0.21	51%	OLP
Kitchener Centre	-0.55	-0.32	-0.23	49%	OLP
Brampton-Springdale	-0.31	-0.08	-0.23	48%	OLP
Mississauga South	0.58	0.83	-0.25	47%	OLP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	-1.15	-0.88	-0.28	46%	NDP
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke	-1.23	-0.92	-0.31	45%	PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock	-1.12	-0.79	-0.33	44%	PC
Mississauga-Streetsville	0.55	0.89	-0.34	43%	OLP
Windsor-Tecumseh	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	42%	OLP
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington	-0.92	-0.57	-0.35	41%	PC
Leeds-Grenville	-1.03	-0.64	-0.39	40%	PC
Welland	-0.99	-0.58	-0.41	39%	NDP
London-Fanshawe	-1.22	-0.81	-0.41	38%	NDP
Northumberland-Quinte West	-1.03	-0.62	-0.41	37%	PC
Oak Ridges-Markham	0.55	0.98	-0.44	36%	OLP
Chatham-Kent-Essex	-1.24	-0.61	-0.63	35%	PC
Brant	-0.91	-0.28	-0.63	34%	OLP
Hamilton Mountain	-0.96	-0.29	-0.67	33%	NDP
Barrie	-0.71	0.05	-0.75	32%	PC
Burlington	0.04	0.80	-0.77	31%	PC
Nepean-Carleton	0.85	1.67	-0.81	29%	PC
Haldimand-Norfolk	-1.37	-0.52	-0.85	28%	PC
Huron-Bruce	-1.25	-0.38	-0.86	27%	PC
Simcoe-Grey	-0.76	0.12	-0.88	26%	PC
Oshawa	-1.17	-0.24	-0.93	25%	PC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale	0.69	1.63	-0.94	24%	OLP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex	-1.28	-0.31	-0.97	23%	PC
Cambridge	-0.77	0.21	-0.98	22%	PC
Carleton-Mississippi Mills	1.01	2.01	-1.00	21%	PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell	-0.96	0.05	-1.02	20%	OLP
Kitchener-Conestoga	-0.62	0.40	-1.02	19%	PC
Halton	0.69	1.72	-1.03	18%	PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London	-1.17	-0.09	-1.08	17%	PC
Perth-Wellington	-1.30	-0.22	-1.08	16%	PC
Vaughan	-0.21	0.90	-1.12	15%	OLP
Oxford	-1.35	-0.19	-1.16	14%	PC
Sarnia-Lambton	-1.05	0.12	-1.17	13%	PC
Pickering-Scarborough East	0.05	1.39	-1.34	12%	OLP
Ajax-Pickering	-0.31	1.09	-1.40	11%	OLP
Newmarket-Aurora	0.26	1.68	-1.42	9%	PC
York-Simcoe	-1.00	0.45	-1.45	8%	PC
Oakville	1.02	2.50	-1.48	7%	OLP
Whitby-Oshawa	-0.25	1.27	-1.51	6%	PC
Ottawa-Orléans	0.74	2.26	-1.52	5%	OLP
Niagara West-Glanbrook	-0.67	0.88	-1.55	4%	PC
Dufferin-Caledon	-0.68	1.03	-1.71	3%	PC
Essex	-0.62	1.12	-1.74	2%	NDP
Durham	-0.80	1.01	-1.81	1%	PC
Wellington-Halton Hills	-0.38	1.55	-1.93	0%	PC

There's the real reason middle Ontario should be wary of multi-graduate, premier-designate Kathleen Wynne: she represents one of the most over-educated ridings in Ontario (Don Valley West). </joke>.

Meanwhile, outgoing Premier Dalton McGuinty's riding, Ottawa South, barely misses the top 25% over-educated ridings.


Certain social critics might also take perverse pleasure in noting that Trinity-Spadina (Toronto's Annex, Trinity Bellwoods Park, Ossington Avenue, etc) is number 2

In Rob Ford's imagination, there are probably
more than a few of these in Trinity-Spadina

Under a stricter set of criteria, that is, searching for truly "over-educated" ridings consisting of lots of educated people making very little money (standard scores over zero for education, and less than zero for income), come out with this exclusive list : Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina, Don Valley East, Scarborough-Agincourt, Parkdale-High Park, Willowdale, York Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Ottawa-Vanier, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Beaches-East York, Ottawa West-Nepean, London North Centre, Markham-Unionville, followed by Kingston and the Islands.



Since the figures are from 2006, maybe the trends would be even more extreme if we had reliable 2011 census numbers.

Brains, Paupers, and the Party Vote

The NDP seems disproportionately represented at the top of the pile here, though they are sprinkled throughout the list, winning ridings all the way down to "under-educated" Essex.

Conversely, the PCs show up pretty often at the bottom, while maxing out at Thornhill, a third of the way down from the top. Is there something going on here?

We decided to check, so we assigned codes to the 2011 Ontario Election winners and looked for any correlations between Party Winner and all our various measures:

Correlations	r
Education and Party Winner	-0.30 *** ( p = 0.003 )
Income and Party Winner	-0.08
Over-Educated Score and Party Winner	-0.21 ** (p = 0.04)

The strongest correlation we found was not with any of the fanciful scores invented here, but actually just plain old education. The next-highest? The over-educated score.

Something interesting for the parties to keep in mind: 2006 family median income apparently had no significant correlation to 2011 party vote at all.

Of course, we would have to reword that for the statisticians: the null hypothesis, where income has no relationship to party vote, cannot be rejected.

But this goes to show you why you should check your figures with some kind of statistical test before jumping to too-hasty a conclusion.


A Nice Note

We have to point out, of course, that "Educated" (% BAs) isn't conterminous with training or seriousness (sorry to burst your bubble, Trinity Bellwoods Park hipsters).

One likely source of income disproportionate to the number of BAs found in a riding are the skilled trades.

Case in point: the roommate at our house who brings home all the money is in wood-working. 

Original tables:

Here is the old data from 3 Feb 2013, using a slightly less sophisticated (we think now) method:

Education Score (after Murray) Rest of Ontario only	Std % Education Score	Std Median Income Score	Super-Riding Score	Super-Riding Score (weighted)	Over- Educated Score	Over- Educated Score (Weighted)	2011 Winner
Willowdale	2.28	-0.12	-2.14	-1.92	2.40	2.35	OLP
Trinity-Spadina	2.12	-0.32	-1.56	-1.73	2.43	2.30	NDP
Toronto Centre	1.87	-0.53	-1.87	-1.70	2.40	2.18	OLP
Don Valley East	1.39	-1.10	1.72	2.09	2.49	2.01	OLP
Don Valley West	2.27	0.62	1.89	1.97	1.65	1.83	OLP
Parkdale-High Park	1.67	-0.17	-1.33	-1.17	1.84	1.79	NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt	0.56	-1.66	-1.52	-1.40	2.22	1.57	OLP
Ottawa Centre	2.22	0.92	-0.86	-0.77	1.30	1.51	OLP
York Centre	0.62	-1.33	-2.09	-2.00	1.95	1.50	OLP
St. Paul's	2.33	1.19	-1.69	-1.57	1.13	1.37	OLP
Toronto-Danforth	0.87	-0.66	-1.60	-1.72	1.53	1.36	NDP
Mississauga East-Cooksville	0.55	-1.00	0.20	0.19	1.55	1.28	OLP
Eglinton-Lawrence	1.91	0.85	1.48	1.63	1.06	1.22	OLP
Beaches-East York	0.91	-0.25	3.52	3.32	1.16	1.11	NDP
Ottawa-Vanier	0.99	-0.12	-1.18	-1.10	1.11	1.09	OLP
Scarborough Centre	-0.05	-1.47	-1.37	-1.36	1.42	1.05	OLP
Ottawa West-Nepean	0.89	-0.18	-0.55	-0.79	1.07	1.04	OLP
Scarborough-Rouge River	-0.08	-1.48	-1.60	-1.42	1.40	1.04	OLP
Scarborough Southwest	-0.02	-1.35	-1.50	-1.37	1.33	1.02	OLP
Scarborough-Guildwood	-0.19	-1.51	-1.48	-1.42	1.31	0.97	OLP
Etobicoke North	-0.30	-1.61	1.33	1.25	1.32	0.94	OLP
Davenport	-0.22	-1.39	2.03	2.10	1.17	0.89	NDP
Ottawa South	0.98	0.14	-0.73	-0.77	0.84	0.86	OLP
Hamilton Centre	-0.45	-1.63	0.97	0.97	1.18	0.84	NDP
York West	-0.76	-2.05	-2.81	-2.48	1.29	0.83	OLP
Richmond Hill	1.30	0.59	-1.24	-1.29	0.71	0.79	OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore	0.92	0.17	1.23	1.16	0.75	0.77	OLP
Etobicoke Centre	0.94	0.29	1.51	1.31	0.64	0.68	OLP
York South-Weston	-0.83	-1.80	-2.09	-2.08	0.97	0.66	OLP
Markham-Unionville	0.45	-0.22	0.19	0.19	0.67	0.64	OLP
London North Centre	0.46	-0.18	0.29	0.27	0.64	0.62	OLP
Thornhill	1.60	1.12	-1.67	-1.69	0.48	0.57	PC
Mississauga-Brampton South	0.62	0.05	-0.21	-0.20	0.57	0.57	OLP
Windsor West	-0.05	-0.60	-1.96	-1.94	0.56	0.50	OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton	-0.42	-0.93	2.77	3.13	0.50	0.42	NDP
Kingston and the Islands	0.24	-0.17	0.72	0.70	0.41	0.40	OLP
London West	0.48	0.18	0.23	0.24	0.30	0.31	OLP
St. Catharines	-0.55	-0.69	-1.69	-1.55	0.14	0.13	OLP
Prince Edward-Hastings	-1.00	-1.09	-1.45	-1.28	0.09	0.08	PC
Mississauga-Erindale	0.89	0.83	-0.48	-0.48	0.06	0.07	OLP
Peterborough	-0.63	-0.67	-1.24	-1.19	0.05	0.04	OLP
Kitchener-Waterloo	0.87	0.89	0.66	0.59	-0.02	-0.03	PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound	-1.09	-1.05	2.89	2.87	-0.04	-0.03	PC
Guelph	0.34	0.38	1.12	1.12	-0.05	-0.05	OLP
Niagara Falls	-0.87	-0.73	-0.58	-0.64	-0.15	-0.13	OLP
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry	-1.17	-0.97	-1.70	-1.57	-0.19	-0.16	PC
Kitchener Centre	-0.46	-0.29	0.71	0.66	-0.17	-0.16	OLP
Mississauga South	0.57	0.76	0.07	0.07	-0.19	-0.21	OLP
Simcoe North	-0.97	-0.71	-1.48	-1.47	-0.26	-0.23	PC
Brampton-Springdale	-0.38	-0.14	2.72	3.04	-0.24	-0.23	OLP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	-1.12	-0.84	0.67	0.78	-0.28	-0.24	NDP
Brampton West	-0.43	-0.12	2.14	3.07	-0.30	-0.30	OLP
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke	-1.09	-0.72	-1.30	-1.29	-0.37	-0.33	PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock	-1.15	-0.77	0.81	1.06	-0.38	-0.33	PC
London-Fanshawe	-1.13	-0.75	0.22	0.19	-0.38	-0.33	NDP
Mississauga-Streetsville	0.59	0.89	-0.45	-0.48	-0.29	-0.34	OLP
Windsor-Tecumseh	-0.43	-0.05	-1.92	-1.94	-0.38	-0.37	OLP
Welland	-0.95	-0.53	-1.91	-1.76	-0.42	-0.38	NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington	-0.99	-0.49	0.32	0.30	-0.50	-0.45	PC
Leeds-Grenville	-0.97	-0.46	0.29	0.28	-0.51	-0.47	PC
Northumberland-Quinte West	-1.12	-0.59	-0.74	-0.68	-0.53	-0.48	PC
Chatham-Kent-Essex	-1.14	-0.55	2.27	2.15	-0.60	-0.54	PC
Hamilton Mountain	-0.96	-0.28	0.75	0.75	-0.67	-0.64	NDP
Brant	-0.98	-0.27	3.14	2.91	-0.70	-0.67	OLP
Haldimand-Norfolk	-1.25	-0.44	1.09	1.06	-0.81	-0.75	PC
Huron-Bruce	-1.13	-0.32	0.87	0.75	-0.82	-0.77	PC
Oak Ridges-Markham	0.76	1.38	-0.72	-0.69	-0.63	-0.78	OLP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex	-1.18	-0.32	0.51	0.54	-0.86	-0.81	PC
Barrie	-0.77	0.11	3.54	3.42	-0.88	-0.89	PC
Burlington	0.09	0.88	2.82	2.63	-0.79	-0.91	PC
Perth-Wellington	-1.14	-0.19	-1.37	-1.18	-0.95	-0.92	PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell	-0.89	0.07	1.24	1.12	-0.96	-0.97	OLP
Oshawa	-1.19	-0.18	-0.83	-0.73	-1.01	-0.98	PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London	-1.10	-0.08	1.24	1.43	-1.02	-1.01	PC
Oxford	-1.18	-0.14	-1.32	-1.15	-1.05	-1.02	PC
Kitchener-Conestoga	-0.59	0.38	0.66	0.66	-0.97	-1.04	PC
Simcoe-Grey	-0.87	0.14	-1.81	-1.52	-1.01	-1.04	PC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale	0.71	1.56	3.28	3.58	-0.85	-1.08	OLP
Sarnia-Lambton	-0.97	0.11	-1.25	-1.33	-1.07	-1.09	PC
Cambridge	-0.83	0.25	2.76	2.58	-1.09	-1.13	PC
Nepean-Carleton	0.86	1.91	-0.52	-0.53	-1.04	-1.39	PC
Pickering-Scarborough East	0.04	1.20	-1.42	-1.20	-1.16	-1.41	OLP
Vaughan	-0.26	1.07	-1.35	-1.75	-1.34	-1.59	OLP
Ajax-Pickering	-0.30	1.05	3.03	3.90	-1.35	-1.59	OLP
Carleton-Mississippi Mills	1.04	2.23	2.16	2.37	-1.19	-1.66	PC
Niagara West-Glanbrook	-0.63	0.83	-0.65	-0.67	-1.47	-1.68	PC
York-Simcoe	-1.03	0.51	-2.63	-2.56	-1.55	-1.69	PC
Newmarket-Aurora	0.29	1.73	-0.52	-0.59	-1.44	-1.88	PC
Oakville	1.10	2.45	-0.66	-0.72	-1.35	-1.93	OLP
Dufferin-Caledon	-0.67	0.99	1.77	1.90	-1.66	-1.95	PC
Halton	0.79	2.23	1.08	1.02	-1.44	-2.00	PC
Ottawa-Orléans	0.68	2.14	-1.10	-1.05	-1.47	-2.01	OLP
Essex	-0.65	1.17	1.34	1.38	-1.82	-2.19	NDP
Whitby-Oshawa	-0.26	1.49	-2.14	-1.81	-1.75	-2.21	PC
Durham	-0.84	1.03	1.80	1.76	-1.87	-2.21	PC
Wellington-Halton Hills	-0.38	1.46	-1.72	-1.80	-1.84	-2.32	PC

Correlations with Party winner, 2011	r	r2
Correl 1 (Over-educated score, weighted)	-0.22	0.05
Correl 2 (Over-educated score, unweighted)	-0.24	0.06
Correl 3 (SuperRiding score weighted)	0.14	0.02
Correl 4 (SuperRiding score, unweighted)	0.15	0.02
Correl 5 (Income)	-0.06	0.00
Correl 6 (Education)	-0.33	0.11

NDP vote in the 2011 election, continued

Last time, we looked at the greatest gains in support for NDP among various segments of Ontario's voters for the 2011 election. This time we get to be the bad news bear and look at their biggest drops in support. The results are not exactly what one might expect.

Remember, we are using basic correlations (CORREL) data, the number-cruncher caveman's club, and there are a few issues with ages represented in the data: the people the census data describe are now five years older. But let's have a look anyway. Scroll down to get past the rather messy numbers.

Briefly, Some Inflammatory Numbers

It's done!

We've compiled a whole Excel file full of voting data and demographics alongside for each of the 107 Ontario ridings. We've already gone over how much this was a challenge, particularly for the eleven Northern Ontario ridings. As a result we're splitting up our reporting based on the whole of Ontario, the North, and the Rest of Ontario (ROO). If someone can come up with a better name for that, we're open to suggestions.

We thought we'd try it out by opening up another Excel worksheet and running some basic correlations just to see if it all made sense. Since the Ontario NDP, which managed to impose a minority government on the liberals due to its showing in 2011, will be looked at closely for the next few days, we thought we'd start with looking at how how it gained support.

These are correlations, of course, and we can't read too much into them. And the usual environmental fallacy caveats apply. But faced with an apparent absence of extensive exit polling in Canada, this is what we've got to deal with.

The Digits

Below is a graph based on the correlations we found based on Chinese residents, number of rented dwellings, and people "not in the labour force" in the most recent census (2001 for the North, and 2006 for the ROO), measured against raw vote totals (not "percentages of valid votes").

According to this admittedly rough first sketch, the NDP managed to increase its support from the Chinese-Canadian community. Or to put it more accurately, they managed to decrease the negative correlation between Chinese-Canadian presence in a riding and total NDP votes.  The biggest jump was in the north, with more marginal gains down south. 

Click to Enlarge

Why did I pick Chinese-Canadians? Well, I met my friend during a recent campaign, so I wanted to amuse him later with some statistics about "his people", as he might put it bemusedly. It was the first demographic listed alphabetically, and I just wanted a visible minority group from the census.  

Perhaps more interesting is what's going on with "# of rented dwellings", which we'll use as a proxy for "renters". Unlike the Chinese community, the NDP started out with a positive correlation for rented dwellings in 2007 everywhere, that is, except in the north. But in 2011, they then lost some renters mostly in the Rest of Ontario, while in the North they actually made quite a big leap (though still ending up slightly negative). 

The "Not in the Labour Force" numbers were interesting as well. In 2007, Ontario-wide, the NDP actually had a negative correlation for this group. Only in the Rest of Ontario was there a slight correlation in favour of the NDP. The North, however, did not see the NEET flocking to the NDP by any means (-0.587).

In 2011, a time of greater labour market difficulties, the NDP improved quite a bit on their score with those "Not in the Labour Force", with a marked jump in the North (going to -0.101). The Rest of Ontario saw also saw a large move toward the NDP, but one not nearly as dramatic. Province-wide, the party went from a negative to positive correlation.

Where to Go From Here

In the next few days, we'll be looking at some of the most significant correlations to party vote. We will also begin drawing up some rudimentary election projections and discussing some flaws with some of the existing models out there.