Edit: Due to an update of our model, we now see the PCs once again in minority territory.Based on new polling reported today in the Toronto Star, our projection whirlygigs have informed us that Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives are poised to form a majority government at 54 seats, versus only 27 for the Liberals. With only one seat between Hudak and the rest of the chamber, some accommodation would be needed for the Speaker position, however.
Of course, we know that this differs from the Star's headline which suggests a minority for the PCs. Indeed, our uniform swing model does come out with a minority government. We respond to this divergence in opinion by responding: you be the judge!
Seats going over to the PCs this round: Ajax-Pickering, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Brant, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Kitchener Centre, Mississauga-Erindale, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges-Markham, Oakville, Ottawa-Orléans, Ottawa West-Nepean, Peterborough, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, and York Centre.
Click to view the full projection scorecard.
