EKOS Poll: PC Majority Government

The latest figures released by EKOS and fed into our projection model suggest that the PCs would end up with a solid majority government and bring the Ontario Liberals below 19 seats.

The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, would gain a handful of seats and Andrea Horwath would become the leader of the official opposition.

This is something to keep in mind as the Liberals and NDP negotiate over the upcoming budget.

Perhaps the NDP's list of micro-demands are a very deft move, as Horwath's reasonable gains for various constituencies in the middle of a jobs crisis wouldn't be seen as precipitating an election. If she obtains them, people may thank her. If she does not, and the Liberals take a my-way-or-the-highway approach to the budget, causing an election, the Liberals will look bad for having nothing to offer on youth unemployment.

The prize of earning Official Opposition status might be very valuable symbolically for the NDP, even though it would actually represent a net loss of power for them.

On the other hand, Hudak's preferred policies are extreme enough to likely prompt the NDP and Liberal bases to pressure their leaders to find a solution to avoid an election, which looks set to lead to an even more austerity-prone government.

Infographic: The Late-20s Employment Dip

Is thirty the new twenty-five? In Québec and Ontario (the territory of our Projections blogs thus far) it's been harder for people in their late twenties to get their foot on the ladder.

(Unfortunately, detailled age breakdowns don't seem to be available in the same place as education information. So we can't tell you how many diplomas are held by those taking the biggest hits on jobs.)

Full-time numbers for all 25-29s took a hit between 2000 and 2012, but again it was young men on the job market who were hit the hardest. In general, girls were kept afloat, but the provincial breakdown brings to light an important change: girls in Ontario came off slightly worse, while their sisters in Québec made absolute gains in an era where others around them were losing their jobs.

Young men in Ontario were hit the hardest in relative terms, but retain a slight relative advantage over their brothers in Québec, and of course, the young women.

Ignoring gender, the picture is much less ambiguous. Even if we are generous, and use the 2004 dip in employment as the starting point for the Ontario Liberals, the McGuinty economy left much to be desired for anyone born after 1983 and seeking full-time employment.

Bad news for Québec-bashers: The 2000s to today, all things considered, show an upward trajectory for youth employment. In Québec, 2011 was a worse year for jobs than crisis-era 2009. Meanwhile, a very anemic recovery seems to be underway in Ontario.