The latest figures released by EKOS and fed into our projection model suggest that the PCs would end up with a solid majority government and bring the Ontario Liberals below 19 seats.The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, would gain a handful of seats and Andrea Horwath would become the leader of the official opposition.
This is something to keep in mind as the Liberals and NDP negotiate over the upcoming budget.
Perhaps the NDP's list of micro-demands are a very deft move, as Horwath's reasonable gains for various constituencies in the middle of a jobs crisis wouldn't be seen as precipitating an election. If she obtains them, people may thank her. If she does not, and the Liberals take a my-way-or-the-highway approach to the budget, causing an election, the Liberals will look bad for having nothing to offer on youth unemployment.
The prize of earning Official Opposition status might be very valuable symbolically for the NDP, even though it would actually represent a net loss of power for them.
On the other hand, Hudak's preferred policies are extreme enough to likely prompt the NDP and Liberal bases to pressure their leaders to find a solution to avoid an election, which looks set to lead to an even more austerity-prone government.
