Data products for your campaign are now available at CanProject.ca. This site is no longer updated.

Tuesday 12 March 2013

Who's Voting for Who? Ontario Political Parties and Voter Segments

To see how our Ontario demographic segments relate to votes for different parties in Ontario's elections, we decided to look for some basic correlations (wiki) in the voting data.

Here are the results. You might consider this a test, to see if the segments make intuitive socio-political sense.


Take a look at our Ontario Geo-Segments Page for demographic information about neighborhoods, and ridings as well as a searchable map of Ontario!

The signs indicate a significant positive (+) or negative (-) correlation between an Ontario political party and each segment type (cluster).  

Note that this table doesn't show change between one year and the next, but instead whether a type can be said, with relative certainty, to support or to be hostile to a party, or indifferent to it altogether, for one election.

Turnout is included too, to measure whether a group tended to go to the polls (+), stay home (-) or follow the general tendency (blank).

Significant Correlations : Ontario Political Parties and Clusters 

 
TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2011NDP 2011PC 2011Green 2011Turnout
2011
A01511




A02521
-


A03522




A04523




A05531-
+
-
A06541



+
A07551




A08561+-

+
A09562




A10563
-
+
A11564+-
-
A12565




A13566




A14567+-


B15311




B16312-
+
+
B17313--+++
B18314
+

+
B19315--++
B20321-



B21331-+

-
B22341-
+-+
B23351

+
+
B24352
+--
TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2011NDP 2011PC 2011Green 2011Turnout
2011
C25211




C26221
+-

C27222-+-

C28223+
-+
C29231-+-+-
C30241
+-
-
C31242+
-

C32251




C33261

-

C34262




C35263




C36264
+
-
C37265




D38111



-
D39121



-
D40122-


-
D41123+
---
D42124+

--
D43131



-
D44132




D45133
-

-
D46141


+-
D47142+-

-
D48143+---
E49411+


+
E50421
+---
E51431+
---
E52441
+-

E53451+

-
E54461+
-
TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2011NDP 2011PC 2011Green 2011Turnout
2011

Here are 2007's scores:

TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2007NDP 2007PC 2007Green 2007Turnout
2007
A01511




A02521
-
++
A03522

+

A04523



+
A05531--++-
A06541



+
A07551




A08561+-

+
A09562




A10563-

+
A11564
--++
A12565+



A13566




A14567+-


B15311




B16312-

++
B17313--+++
B18314
+


B19315--
+
B20321




B21331
+
-
B22341-
-++
B23351
-

+
B24352
+--
TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2007NDP 2007PC 2007Green 2007Turnout
2007
C25211




C26221-+
-
C27222-+
-
C28223

+-
C29231++
--
C30241
+
--
C31242




C32251




C33261+

-
C34262




C35263+



C36264++--
C37265




D38111+

-
D39121+
---
D40122-
++-
D41123+

--
D42124+--
-
D43131



-
D44132




D45133
-

-
D46141+-

-
D47142+-


D48143+---+
E49411



+
E50421
+---
E51431+

-+
E52441-+
-
E53451+
-

E54461
TypeCluster
Number
(deprecated)
Liberals 2007NDP 2007PC 2007Green 2007Turnout
2007

Boring Methodology Stuff

Remember that correlation does not imply causation! And that correlation does not by itself indicate slope, or the "intensity" of the support of a particular segment for an Ontario political party, merely that there is quite likely a relationship. We have established significance here as p > 0.05.

Analyses were conducted at the riding level, and not the polling division or dissemination area level, possibly exposing us to some kind of environmental fallacy.


We should point out that the party political information was researched after we named the groups. We didn't just give the good names to the groups whose voting record we liked best.

No comments:

ShareThis

Read More from Ontario Projections